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| #1204563 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 21.Oct.2024) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...SLOW-MOVING OSCAR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 74.9W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located inland over eastern Cuba near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 74.9 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (8 km/h). A turn to the west and northwest is expected today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba through this afternoon, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late today or tonight and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Oscar interacts with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late today and then moves near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas today into Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Wednesday morning. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
