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| #1204634 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 PM 21.Oct.2024) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 75.8W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 75.8 West. Oscar is now moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the north is expected this afternoon, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern coast of Cuba this afternoon or evening and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while the center remains over land today, followed by slight restrengthening after the center moves back over water and near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. An ASOS weather station in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba recently reported a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and are possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of Guantanamo. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
