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| #1204655 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 21.Oct.2024) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...CENTER OF OSCAR NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 76.1W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Central Bahamas * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 76.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north-northeast is expected tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern coast of Cuba by this evening and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) southeast and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in eastern Cuba through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of Guantanamo. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside this evening and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
