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| #1204685 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 21.Oct.2024) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 The center of Oscar has emerged off the northern coast of eastern Cuba, but the system is struggling to maintain its identity as a tropical cyclone. The limited convection noted in recent satellite images is displaced over 100 n mi to the east of the center, likely the result of increasing westerly shear and significant intrusions of dry air. Also, satellite images suggest the center could be somewhat elongated compared to earlier today. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters sampled the wind field tonight and recently reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 51 kt in clear air to the east of the center. Based on this, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Oscar has made its anticipated turn and is now moving toward the north-northeast (015/7 kt). A mid-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic is expected to steer Oscar northeastward at a faster speed during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday, Oscar should be absorbed by a larger, non-tropical area of low pressure that is forecast to develop over the western Atlantic. There were no notable changes to the track guidance this cycle, and the NHC track prediction remains similar to the previous one. Based on satellite trends tonight, it seems more unlikely that Oscar will be able to restrengthen given the continued bouts of dry air and stronger shear expected over the next couple of days. As a result, the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Oscar degenerating to a post-tropical low in 24 h, although this could occur even sooner if convection does not redevelop during the upcoming convective maximum period. There is still a threat of additional rainfall producing flash flooding across portions of eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Through Tuesday, additional periods of heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding and mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially in areas of steep terrain. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas overnight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 21.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 22.8N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 24.3N 73.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/1200Z 26.5N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 29.3N 68.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
