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| #1204686 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 21.Oct.2024) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 75.4W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warnings for Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 75.4 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Oscar could degenerate to a post-tropical low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) east and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas overnight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected, leading to storm total accumulations of 20 inches across portions of eastern Cuba. This rainfall may produce additional flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Across the southeastern Bahamas, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts around 8 inches, are expected. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
