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| #1204727 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 22.Oct.2024) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 ...POORLY ORGANIZED OSCAR MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 74.8W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the southeastern and central Bahamas today, then move away from the Bahamas tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. While little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two, Oscar is expected to become a post-tropical low by tonight and then be absorbed by another low pressure area by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) east and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas today. RAINFALL: Across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts around 8 inches, are expected through Tuesday. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
