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| #1206260 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 AM 03.Nov.2024) TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 The center of Patty passed south of Terceira Island early this morning and is now approaching Sao Miguel Island in the southeastern Azores. Satellite images reveal the convective structure of the storm has degraded, with warming cloud tops and limited convection that has become displaced to the north and east of the center. Based on these trends and decreasing satellite intensity estimates, the intensity of Patty is lowered to 45 kt. The strongest winds are likely occurring to the south and southwest of the center. Scatterometer passes expected later this morning should provide more clarity on the storm`s wind structure and current intensity. Patty is moving quickly eastward (090/16 kt) within mid-latitude westerlies over the northeastern Atlantic. A turn toward the east-northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday, in good agreement with the tightly clustered track guidance. No major changes were made to the updated NHC track forecast. The storm is already showing ill effects from westerly shear and dry air on its west side, and the environmental conditions are not expected to improve during the next couple of days. Therefore more weakening is anticipated, and Patty could lose organized convection and degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone by tonight or early Monday. Then, the global models indicate the low should gradually fill and eventually open into a trough by midweek near the coast of Portugal. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Azores today, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 2. Locally heavy rains are possible across the Azores through early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 37.9N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 37.7N 22.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 38.1N 18.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 04/1800Z 39.4N 14.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 05/0600Z 40.9N 10.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z 42.1N 8.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
