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| #1206338 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 PM 03.Nov.2024) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 77.1W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the island of Jamaica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 77.1 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north and then northwest is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica by late Monday and near or over the Cayman Islands Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is expected to become a tropical depression tonight and steady strengthening is forecast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hurricane is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and southern Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
