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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
16.7N 77.6W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 996mb
Moving:
Nnw at 12 mph
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#1206414 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 AM 04.Nov.2024)
TCMAT3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC MON NOV 04 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 76.9W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 76.9W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.5N 77.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.3N 78.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.1N 79.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.8N 81.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.7N 83.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...115NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.2N 84.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 76.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH