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| #1206416 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 AM 04.Nov.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 This morning`s METSAT-10 satellite imagery presentation consists of a fragmented curved band with -30C to -40C cloud tops displaced to the east of the exposed elongated surface center. A blend of the TAFB and SAB subjective and UW-CIMSS objective technique satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 35 kt for this advisory. Although Patty`s cloud pattern is typical of a sheared tropical cyclone, the FSU cyclone phase diagram based on the GFS and ECMWF models indicates an asymmetric deep cold core thermal structure. Despite the sub-23C oceanic sea surface temperatures, the very cold upper-tropospheric temperatures are more than likely supporting sufficient thermodynamic instability to produce the remaining convection associated with the cyclone. The vertical tilt with height is becoming more pronounced due to the strong westerly shear and Patty should spin down while losing what remains of the convection and become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The global models agree with Patty opening up into a trough by the 36 hr period and the official forecast follows suit. Patty`s initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 070/17 kt. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected today and this motion should continue until it dissipates on Tuesday. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and closely follows the various consensus aids. Key messages: 1. Between late today and Tuesday, heavy rainfall across portions of Portugal and western Spain is possible from Patty or its remnants. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 38.2N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 39.0N 14.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 05/0600Z 40.2N 11.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
