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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
16.7N 77.6W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 996mb
Moving:
Nnw at 12 mph
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#1206453 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:39 AM 04.Nov.2024)
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 76.9W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 76.9W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 76.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 77.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.2N 79.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.9N 80.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.7N 82.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 83.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N 85.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 26.1N 87.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.4N 89.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 76.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI