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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
TS Rafael
ADV#6A 12:00 am EDT
16.7N 77.6W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 996mb
Moving:
Nnw at 12 mph
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#1206502 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 PM 04.Nov.2024)
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 76.7W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 76.7W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 76.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 77.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 79.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.2N 80.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.1N 82.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 85.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.0N 87.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.4N 89.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 76.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY