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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
TS Rafael
ADV#6A 12:00 am EDT
16.7N 77.6W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 996mb
Moving:
Nnw at 12 mph
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#1206540 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 PM 04.Nov.2024)
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0300 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 77.2W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 77.2W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.6N 78.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.4N 79.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.4N 81.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 83.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N 84.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.4N 85.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 26.6N 87.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 27.1N 89.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 77.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN