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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 77 (Milton) , Major: 77 (Milton) Florida - Any: 77 (Milton) Major: 77 (Milton)
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#1206575 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 AM 05.Nov.2024)
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 78.0W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 78.0W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 77.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.4N 79.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.3N 80.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 82.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.9N 84.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 85.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.8N 86.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 26.8N 89.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 27.8N 90.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 78.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH