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#1206717 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 PM 05.Nov.2024)
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 80.4W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 80.4W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 79.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.2N 81.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 83.2W...ON THE N CUBA COAST
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N 84.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.8N 85.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.1N 87.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N 89.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 26.7N 91.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N 91.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 80.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN