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#1206791 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:54 AM 06.Nov.2024)
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 81.9W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 81.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 81.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.8N 83.2W...OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.9N 84.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.3N 86.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.4N 88.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.7N 92.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 25.7N 92.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 81.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN