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| #1206792 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 AM 06.Nov.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 The satellite presentation of Rafael has continued to improve this morning with the eye becoming apparent in geostationary imagery. Radar data from the Cayman Islands and reports from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated Rafael has a double eyewall structure. Both the NOAA and Air Force planes measured peak flight-level winds of 94 kt earlier this morning. Dropsonde data indicated that the pressure had fallen to around 963 mb on the last pass of the NOAA P-3 aircraft around 1245 UTC. Given the continued improvement in the satellite structure and earlier tail-Doppler radar data, the initial wind speed has been set at 95 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm by early this afternoon. Rafael will remain in a favorable environment for strengthening while it approaches western Cuba. The hurricane will be traversing warm waters and remain in light to moderate vertical wind shear conditions. The apparent beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle could ease the recent rate of rapid intensification, but it appears very likely that Rafael will become a major hurricane before it makes landfall in western Cuba later today. Some weakening is forecast when the storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and significantly drier air are likely to result in weakening, however a more southerly track over the Gulf could result in less hostile conditions, and there is larger-than-normal uncertainty regarding Rafael`s intensity later in the forecast period. The hurricane is moving northwestward or 320/11 kt. Rafael should continue to move around the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. The ridge is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days which is expected to cause Rafael to turn more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is in good agreement for the first 48 to 60 h, but there is increasing spread after that time. Much of the guidance now suggests that the ridge will remain to the north of the system through much of the forecast period. This has resulted in a southward shift in the model envelope and the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted in that direction after 72 hours. The new forecast lies north of the latest consensus aids and additional southward adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to become a major hurricane before it reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight. 3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba. 4. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the western Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 21.4N 81.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 22.8N 83.2W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/1200Z 23.9N 84.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 24.3N 86.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 24.4N 88.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 25.7N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 25.7N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
