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| #1206818 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 PM 06.Nov.2024) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 100 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...RAFAEL BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 82.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 82.3 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected make landfall in western Cuba this afternoon. Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Satellite data and preliminary reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely before Rafael makes landfall in Cuba this afternoon. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). An automated weather station at Cayo Largo Del Sur, Cuba, reported sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to 83 mph (134 km/h) within the past few hours. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth through the evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and tonight. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
