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#1206928 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 AM 07.Nov.2024)
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0900 UTC THU NOV 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 84.6W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 84.6W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 84.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.4N 85.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.5N 87.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.6N 90.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.6N 92.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 24.2N 93.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 23.5N 93.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 84.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH