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| #1206960 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 07.Nov.2024) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 700 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024 ...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING RAFAEL... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 84.9W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 84.9 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected later today, with this general motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is anticipated during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
