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| #1206973 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 AM 07.Nov.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Rafael this morning. Tail Doppler Radar data and reports from the flight crews, in addition to earlier passive microwave imagery, indicate the eyewall has opened up to the south and southwest of the center. This is likely due to the negative influences of some drier mid-level air and westerly shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 92 kt, and dropsonde data indicate the central pressure has risen slightly to around 971 mb. Given the latest flight-level wind data and some erosion of the eyewall convection, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt. The hurricane is expected to move into an even drier airmass over the next few days, with at least weak to moderate westerly shear over the system. So despite 27-28 deg C SSTs over the southern Gulf of Mexico, some additional weakening is forecast through this weekend into early next week. Rafael should remain a hurricane for the next couple of days, but some downward adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast to bring it closer to the latest multi-model consensus aids. Even still, the NHC forecast lies on the higher side of the guidance envelope. Recent aircraft fixes indicate Rafael is beginning a leftward turn, and the initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 295/8 kt. The hurricane should move westward over the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge builds to its north. Then, there is still some spread in the track guidance with a bifurcation in model solutions. Most of the models (including the ECMWF, UKMET, and regional hurricane models) show Rafael turning southwestward in response to a narrow ridge building to its northwest. But, the GFS and Canadian models still suggest a northward turn ahead of a slightly deeper upper trough over the central United States. The NHC prediction continues to favor the southern solutions and is similar to the previous forecast, in agreement with the majority of track models and consensus aids. There remains above average uncertainty in the future track of Rafael, and additional adjustments to subsequent official track forecasts are likely. If the northern model solutions were to verify, Rafael would likely encounter even more hostile environmental conditions and weaken faster than shown in the official NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to western Cuba today. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 24.5N 85.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 24.6N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 24.7N 91.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 24.7N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 24.5N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 24.0N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 22.0N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
