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#1207013 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 PM 07.Nov.2024)
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.2W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.2W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.7N 89.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.2N 92.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.1N 92.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 23.7N 93.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 86.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART