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| #1207018 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 PM 07.Nov.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Rafael has made a resurgence this afternoon. The hurricane has apparently mixed out some of the dry air from earlier today and become better organized, with a ragged eye that has emerged in satellite imagery and a more cohesive ring of deep convection surrounding its center. On the last pass through the eye earlier this afternoon, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the central pressure had fallen several millibars from earlier passes. They also reported a few observations of 700-mb flight-level winds in excess of 100 kt, with a peak of 107 kt. These data support raising the initial intensity to 90 kt. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Rafael this evening. The improved structure of the hurricane could make it more resilient to the negative effects of dry air and westerly shear in the near term, so some additional strengthening cannot be ruled out tonight. However, the overall model trends favor weakening through much of the 5-day forecast period as Rafael moves into a drier mid-level environment and encounters stronger shear by this weekend. The updated NHC intensity prediction has been nudged upward through 24 h and downward at later forecast times, but still lies near or above the simple- and corrected-consensus aids. It is possible that the hostile environmental conditions could cause Rafael to weaken even faster and lose organized convection by the end of the 5-day period. Rafael is moving west-northwestward (295/8 kt) around a mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula. As this ridge builds to its north, the hurricane is expected to move generally westward through Saturday. There is still quite a bit of track forecast uncertainty thereafter, with larger than normal spread among the various track models. Many of the models (including the ECMWF, UKMET, and regional hurricane models) slow Rafael down and turn it southwestward in response to ridging over the western Gulf and northern Mexico. However, the GFS and Canadian models show a slow northward turn between an upper trough over the central U.S. and a ridge to the east. No major changes were made to the NHC track forecast this cycle, which continues to favor the former scenario. However, future larger adjustments to the track forecast could be required. If model solutions like the GFS were to verify, Rafael would encounter a stronger shear environment and likely weaken faster than shown in the official NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 24.7N 86.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 24.7N 89.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 25.2N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 25.1N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 23.7N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 22.0N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
