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#1207073 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 AM 08.Nov.2024)
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.5W AT 08/0600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.5W AT 08/0600Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 87.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY