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| #1207128 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:39 AM 08.Nov.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Rafael has lost a little strength, but remains a powerful hurricane. Although the eye that was apparent in satellite images overnight has filled, the system still has a well organized central dense overcast pattern with compact banding features surrounding it. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Rafael this morning and based on their data, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 961 mb based on dropsonde information. Rafael is a very compact hurricane, with tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds estimated to extend only 80 n mi and 25 n mi from the center, respectively. Although the waters are still relatively warm over the Gulf of Mexico, a combination of increasing westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should promote steady to rapid weakening during the next few days. The intensity models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is a touch lower than the previous one. Rafael is forecast to fall below hurricane strength on Saturday and degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. Rafael is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a ridge that extends across the western Atlantic and the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so as the ridge weakens. A trough approaching from the west should leave Rafael in very weak steering currents over the weekend and early next week, causing the system to meander over the central Gulf during that time. Once the system becomes weak and shallow, a turn to the south-southwest is expected in the low-level flow. Despite the complex steering, the models are in fair agreement and this forecast is generally similar to the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 24.5N 88.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 24.7N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 25.5N 91.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 25.8N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 25.9N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 25.5N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 23.7N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 22.6N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
