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| #1207174 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 PM 08.Nov.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Satellite images suggest that Rafael is gradually losing strength and organization. The convective pattern has become ragged, and microwave images suggest that westerly vertical wind shear and dry air are beginning to take a toll on the system`s structure. A blend of the latest Dvorak estimates supports lowering the initial intensity to 85 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Rafael this evening, and that data will provide a better estimate of the hurricane`s intensity. ASCAT data and earlier reconnaissance information indicate that Rafael is a very compact hurricane, with tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds estimated to extend only 80 n mi and 25 n mi from the center, respectively. Even though Rafael remains over the warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico, increasing westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should cause steady to rapid weakening during the next few days. Rafael is expected to fall below hurricane strength on Saturday, and become a remnant low by day 3. This prediction is in line with the majority of the models. Rafael is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a ridge that extends across the western Atlantic and the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight as the ridge weakens. A trough approaching from the west should leave Rafael in very weak steering currents over the weekend and early next week, causing the system to meander over the central Gulf during that time. Once the system becomes weak and shallow, a turn to the south-southwest is expected in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one. Although there are differences in the models, they all agree that Rafael will remain over water and not directly impact land. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 24.6N 89.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 24.9N 90.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 25.5N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 25.6N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 24.9N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 23.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 22.8N 92.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 21.6N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
