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CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA #SARA
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| #1207989 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 AM 14.Nov.2024) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been improving. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt. Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression. This is supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which shows a well-defined circulation. The intensity is set to 30 kt based on the Dvorak estimates. Tropical Depression Nineteen has been moving faster, just south of due west, or 265/14 kt, although it should begin slowing down later today. A mid-level ridge centered to the north of the depression over the Straits of Florida should keep it on a westward track until Friday, taking the system near the north coast of eastern Honduras, and possibly inland. After that, the ridge is expected to break down, and the models agree that the cyclone will meander in weak steering currents late Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central America. By early next week, ridging should become re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Very little change was made to the first 3 days of the track forecast. Beyond day 3, there has been a notable westward shift in the track guidance. The NHC forecast is a bit west of the previous forecast beyond day 3, but not as far west as the bulk of the latest model guidance. Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities. However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much land interaction with Honduras occurs. The majority of the models are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72. However, if the system stays offshore, as shown by the latest HWRF model solution, it could take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions and continue to strengthen. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but then is about 5 kt lower than the previous forecast since this forecast shows a bit more land interaction beyond 36 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is above the high end of the guidance envelope beyond 36 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Hagen |
