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CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA #SARA
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| #1208079 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 PM 14.Nov.2024) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Convective banding associated with the cyclone continued to improve especially over the western semicircle of the system after the release of the 1500 UTC advisory. A couple of Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that have flew through the system early this afternoon reported dropsonde data that supported a minimum pressure of 998 mb and peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 42 kt. These data supported the upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm Sara on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from both SAB and TAFB also support 35 kt, therefore the initial intensity for this advisory is at that value. The forward speed of Sara is beginning to decrease as expected. The cyclone is now moving westward or 270 degrees at 9 kt. Sara should continue to move westward during the next couple of days to the south of a strong mid-level ridge, however a continued deceleration of Sara's forward speed is expected. By Sunday, the center of the ridge is forecast to move eastward over Florida which should cause Sara to turn west-northwestward when it approaches Belize and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Most of the track guidance has nudged northward this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new track continues to be along or just north of the coast of northern Honduras and it is in good agreement with the latest consensus aids. Environmental conditions are conducive for some strengthening during the next couple of days, but the main inhibiting factor is the sprawling structure of the cyclone and its close proximity to land. Given that the system is forecast to pass very close to the northern coast of Honduras, only modest strengthening is suggested by most of the guidance. The NHC intensity forecast calls for some strengthening during the next couple of days, follow by little change in intensity until the system moves over the Yucatan peninsula. It should be noted that a more northern track, could result in additional strengthening, but the global models and most of the intensity guidance does not favor that scenario. The global models indicate that the system will weakening quickly while it moves over the Yucatan peninsula and that the circulation is not likely to survive the passage over the peninsula. Therefore, the new forecast now calls for dissipation by day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over portions of northern Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where tropical storm warnings are in effect. 4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 16.1N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 16.1N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 16.3N 87.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 19.3N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
