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| #1208307 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:42 AM 16.Nov.2024) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate that the center of Sara is located between the coast of mainland Honduras and the Bay Islands. Compared to 24 h ago, the storm has become less organized with a decrease in the convection near the center. The ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 35-40 kt in an area of convection to the west and northwest of the center, and based on this the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt. The cyclone remains stationary. A mid-level ridge should strengthen to the north of Sara later today or tonight, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move slowly toward the west-northwest through Sunday. This motion should bring the center over Belize between the 24-36 h points. After landfall, Sara or its remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that not much change in strength should occur before Sara makes landfall in Belize. The intensity forecast will show a little strengthening at 24 h when the system has the most room over water. The cyclone should weaken after landfall, and the dynamical models are in good agreement that it should decay to a open trough before reaching the Bay of Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico. Based on this guidance, the intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 60 h. The global models suggest the possibility that the remnants of Sara could interact with a frontal system to form a non-tropical low near the northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part of next week. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 16.1N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 16.3N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 16.7N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.3N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
