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| #1208349 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:45 AM 16.Nov.2024) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Satellite imagery depicts that the center of Sara is located near the Bay Islands of Honduras. The overall convective structure is fairly disorganized, with a broken curved band on the northwest side, and less convection near the center of circulation. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased this advisory, although the initial intensity is held steady at 40 kt, based on earlier scatterometer data showing 35-40 knots over the western semicircle. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system, which should help better determine the structure and intensity. The storm appears to have started to drift west-northwestward with an estimated motion of 290/02 kt. A mid-level ridge should strengthen to the northeast of Sara later today, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest through Sunday, with a slight increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the system should make landfall in Belize just beyond the 24 h forecast point. After landfall, Sara or its remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest NHC forecast track is similar to the previous and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The current intensity forecast is for the system to hold steady through landfall which is in good agreement with the intensity guidance. Although, some intensity fluctuations are possible as Sara moves over the Gulf of Honduras and approaches Belize during the next 24 h. After landfall, the storm will weaken and models are in good agreement that it should dissipate and open into a trough over the Yucatan Peninsula before reaching the Bay of Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico. Based on this model guidance, the intensity forecast shows dissipation at 60 h, although that could occur sooner. The remnants of Sara could interact with a frontal system to enhance convection near the northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part of next week. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 16.3N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.4N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 16.9N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/1200Z 19.2N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly |
