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| #1208393 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 PM 16.Nov.2024) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...SARA IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS SLIDING TOWARDS BELIZE... ...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 87.0W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 87.0 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue until landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will approach Belize tonight before moving onshore over Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected before landfall in Belize on Sunday, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night or Monday as its remnants move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from aircraft dropsonde observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning tonight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin |
