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| #1208464 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 AM 17.Nov.2024) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 The center of Sara is nearing the coast of Belize. Satellite and radar images indicate that the storm's convective pattern remains ragged with patches of deep convection occurring to the north and east of the center. The objective and subjective Dvorak estimates range from 25 to about 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. The storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at 4 kt. A building ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to move faster to the west-northwest during the next day or so. This motion should bring the center of Sara to the Belize coast late this morning or around midday. Although a 24-hour forecast point is provided, most of the models show Sara opening into a trough by then over northern Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula. Sara is expected to hold steady in strength until it reaches the coast, but weakening is expected after the system moves inland. Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from the country's government indicate that there has been some reports of around 40 inches of rain. These heavy rains are now spreading westward across portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected during the next several hours along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 16.8N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 17.3N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
