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| #1208591 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:36 PM 17.Nov.2024) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Sara Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Satellite data and radar images from Sabancuy, Mexico, show a small area of convection persists near and to the west of the estimated low-level center of Sara tonight. Surface observations are sparse in the region, but the circulation is likely still closed given the satellite presentation of the system. Based on available surface wind data, the initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt. Sara is still moving west-northwestward (300/11 kt) and should maintain this heading overnight. Convection associated with Sara is expected to collapse overnight with continued land interaction. Sara should degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low soon and open into a trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. While strong upper-level winds over the western Gulf are expected to inhibit tropical development, the remnant vorticity and moisture could interact with an approaching frontal system and contribute to heavy rainfall along the northern Gulf coast early this week. For more information, see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center. In addition, the threat of heavy rainfall, life-threatening flash flooding, and mudslides continues for portions of Central America and southern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Sara is winding down across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding impacts will continue. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 18.1N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 19.3N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
