|
Show Selection: |
| #1236261 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 28.Jun.2025) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 The area of low pressure that entered in the Bay of Campeche early this morning (Invest 91L) has slowly improved in organization through the day. Convection had been mostly bursting on the southern portion of the circulation, but is more recently starting to fill in over the northern side. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission has been sampling the system this afternoon, and they were able to close off a circulation center, albeit with not a whole lot of wind. This wind field matches the satellite-derived scatterometer wind data at 1619 UTC which showed a closed circulation, but with peak winds of only 24 kt. However, given the improvement in convective organization with the well-defined circulation noted, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Two this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 25 kt, matching the T1.5/25-kt estimate provided by TAFB. The initial motion of the tropical depression appears to be off to the west-northwest at 290/6 kt. This motion with a slight bend a little more northward is expected through the weekend until the system moves inland over mainland Mexico just after 36 h. The track guidance overall appears to be in pretty good agreement, though with the ECMWF on the south end and GFS on the north end of the guidance envelope. The initial NHC track forecast splits the difference and is quite close to the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. The depression`s wind field is still somewhat broad and in the formative stages. In addition, the environmental conditions are not ideal, with some 20-25 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance that should prevent more robust intensification of this cyclone. On the other hand, sea-surface temperatures are fairly warm (28-29 C) and there is ample mid-level moisture to sustain the convective activity. Thus, some slow intensification seems likely, and the intensity forecast shows the depression becoming a tropical storm before making landfall in Mexico. However, once inland after 36 h, the system should quickly weaken and dissipate by the early portion of next week over the rugged high terrain of central Mexico. This intensity forecast is largely in good agreement with the consensus aid HCCA and the most recent HWRF hurricane-regional model run. Given the forecast for the depression to become a tropical storm before landfall, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of their eastern Gulf coastline. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Conditions are expected on Sunday for portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two will impact portions of northeastern Mexico. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 19.3N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.7N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 20.8N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 21.9N 97.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 22.1N 98.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
