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| #1236968 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 04.Jul.2025) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 The depression is less organized on satellite imagery this evening, with a seemingly elongated low-level center near or just west of the deep convection. This structure is due to persistent southwesterly shear, with a mid-level circulation apparent east of the low-level center. The current intensity will remain 30 kt, consistent with data from the last Air Force reconnaissance mission and satellite trends. The system has been moving erratically recently, but a longer term motion is basically stationary. A slow north-northwestward motion is anticipated to begin on Saturday as the depression is steered on the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. This motion should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. The new NHC track forecast was nudged to the east, consistent with the latest guidance. The global models generally indicate that the current shear should lessen on Saturday, which could allow for some strengthening in combination with the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. There is plenty of dry air aloft, however, which will probably limit significant development, as well as the current disheveled structure. The bulk of the guidance indicates modest strengthening as the system approaches the coast, and the new forecast follows suit, near the latest model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three between Saturday through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the Carolinas. 3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of southeastern United States north of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 30.6N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 30.9N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 31.7N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 32.9N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0000Z 34.2N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z 35.5N 78.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
