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| #1237105 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 05.Jul.2025) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Strong convection continues to persist in the northeastern quadrant of Chantal, with the center located on the southwestern edge of the burst. This convection has been causing a gradual increase in organization of the storm, with an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recently reporting 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt, which equate to about 45 kt at the surface. This data is also close to derived velocity radar data from Wilmington, showing peak 8000 ft winds of about 55 kt, and TAFB`s latest satellite classification of 45 kt. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in agreement with these values. The current motion estimate is 350/7, and Chantal could turn to the north-northwest before landfall due to a narrow mid-level ridge. A turn to the northeast is expected later on Sunday as Chantal becomes more embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the west side of the ridge. There is little time left for any intensification, and Chantal should make landfall within the next 6 hours at about the present intensity (45-50 kt). Steady weakening will occur after landfall with the loss of the warm water heat source, and Chantal is expected to dissipate over eastern North Carolina by early Monday. The track forecast was nudged to the east, with little change to the intensity forecast. Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds and rainfall to the right of the landfall location. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning soon and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina will cause flash flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas. 3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 32.7N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/0000Z 34.8N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
