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| #1240263 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 04.Aug.2025) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 500 AM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 Dexter remains a sheared tropical storm. Animated Proxy-Visible imagery shows a partially exposed low-level center near the western edge of the convective canopy, a function of moderate shear. With little change in the convective signature or satellite estimates during the past few hours, the initial intensity will stay at 40 kt for this advisory. The initial motion continues east-northeastward at 10 kt, with Dexter steered by mid-latitude westerly flow on the northwestern side of the subtropical ridge. Model guidance has come into better agreement on the system moving to the northeast or east-northeast for the next few days due to flow from that ridge, with fewer outlier solutions to note. Generally the models are a bit slower than the last cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend, though is still on the faster side of the guidance. The moderate shear currently affecting Dexter is expected to increase to over 20 kt by late today, with increasing environmental mid-level dry air. This should limit the potential strengthening to the short term, and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, near the model consensus. While strong shear expected in a couple of days would normally cause weakening, there is some chance of a favorable trough interaction causing non-tropical intensification, as shown by the 00Z ECMWF model. Most of the global models, however, do not show the trough phasing with Dexter, though they are showing a stronger extratropical low. The new forecast is just a little higher at 72-96h than the last forecast, and is now below the long-range model consensus. Dexter's extratropical disposition should be considered fairly uncertain at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 34.6N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 35.5N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 36.8N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 37.8N 62.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 38.6N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 39.1N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 07/0600Z 39.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0600Z 41.5N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
