|
Show Selection: |
| #1240365 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 04.Aug.2025) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 Dexter continues to be disrupted by strong westerly vertical wind shear, with its associated deep convection being displaced to the east of the low-level center. The storm's cloud pattern is very ragged-looking at this time and lacks convective banding features. Satellite-based intensity estimates using subjective and objective methods range from 30 kt to 47 kt. Blending these values, the advisory intensity estimate remains 40 kt, though a recent scatterometer pass suggests this might be generous. Although there is some uncertainty in the center location using infrared imagery, it appears that the forward speed has slowed somewhat and the current motion estimate is around 050/11 kt. Dexter is near the southern edge of a belt of mid-level westerlies. The track guidance is in general agreement on a northeastward to east-northeastward motion for the next several days. However, it is possible that the system could become completely decoupled and move more slowly in the low-level flow. The official forecast assumes that the cyclone will retain enough vertical coherency to be steered at least partially by the mid-level flow. The NHC track forecast is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. There is no sign that the strong shear in Dexter's environment will abate. In fact, the SHIPS model indicates that the vertical wind shear will increase even more over the next few days. Therefore, it is not likely that the system will be able to strengthen as a true tropical cyclone. The official forecast allows for slight intensification due to baroclinic processes. Simulated infrared imagery and the FSU phase space predictions from the global models suggest that Dexter will likely make the transition into an extratropical cyclone in 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 36.8N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 37.8N 64.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 38.9N 62.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 39.6N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 40.2N 56.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 41.2N 52.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/0000Z 42.8N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0000Z 46.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z 49.0N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
