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| #1240394 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 05.Aug.2025) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 500 AM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 Dexter appears to be weakening. The low-level circulation has become totally exposed this morning- a consequence of continued strong vertical wind shear. Satellite intensity estimates have fallen so the initial wind speed is reduced to 35 kt. Little change is expected for the next day or so as Dexter battles the shear. While normally the storm would just decay after the waters become cooler in a couple days, most models are now showing re-intensification due to a favorable trough interaction. This was first shown by the ECMWF yesterday, and now other models are on board. The short-term part of the forecast was lowered based on the initial wind speed, and little change was made to the longer-term intensities. The storm continues moving east-northeastward at about 10 kt. An east-northeast to northeast track is likely for the next couple of days due to mid-latitude westerly flow. The aforementioned trough interaction should cause a faster forward motion in a few days. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, mostly ignoring the slow GFS solution. Extratropical transition is expected between 36-48 h, and the low is forecast to decay into a trough in roughly 4-5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 37.3N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 38.2N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 39.2N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 39.9N 57.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 40.6N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/1800Z 42.0N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/0600Z 43.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 46.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
