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| #1240419 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 05.Aug.2025) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 Dexter continues to be in a weakened state this morning. The low-level circulation is still partially exposed to the the west of the deeper convection, and cloud tops with the deeper convection have warmed this morning. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt and little change in this intensity is expected today. Most models continue to show some re-intensification due to a favorable trough interaction by Wednesday into Thursday. Thus little to no change was made to the intensity forecast, although there remains some uncertainty with how quickly this modest re-intensification occurs. Overall little change was made to either the track or intensity forecast with this package. There is some model spread with the forward speed of Dexter, with the GFS remaining an outlier on the slower side of the model spread, and the ECMWF faster. However, run to run continuity in the models has been low with these details, and the previous forecast remains well within this spread. Expect that we will continue to see run to run variability, and thus there was no strong evidence that a change in the track forecast was needed at this time. Thus the new forecast is similar to the previous one, and continues to give less weight to the slower GFS. Extratropical transition is expected between 36-48 h, and the low is forecast to decay into a trough in roughly 4-5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 38.0N 63.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 38.8N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 39.6N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 40.4N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 41.5N 52.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0000Z 42.9N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1200Z 44.4N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 46.0N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Chenard/Shieh |
