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| #1240490 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 05.Aug.2025) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 Strong westerly vertical wind shear continues over Dexter. Although vigorous deep convection continues to form within the circulation, this activity is persistently displaced to the east of the estimated low-level center. The cloud pattern remain rather ragged-looking with no well-defined banding features. The current intensity estimate is 35 kt, which is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Objective intensity estimates are somewhat higher, but since the organization of the system has not improved since earlier today, the intensity is not increased on this advisory. Dexter is estimated to be moving east-northeastward, or around 060/10 kt. The cyclone continues moving along the southern side of a belt of mid-level westerlies. An upstream trough is expected pass just north of the system within the next 1-2 days, and Dexter will probably accelerate a little due to the influence of the trough. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous NHC prediction and close to the dynamical model consensus. As diagnosed by the Decay-SHIPS guidance, vertical wind shear is predicted to increase even further during the next 48 hours. Typically this would lead to weakening of a tropical cyclone. However, Dexter is expected to intensify somewhat due to its interaction with the approaching upper-level trough and baroclinic forcing, while losing its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is about in the middle of the model guidance. This is also close to the latest HCCA corrected consensus solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 38.9N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 39.6N 59.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 40.0N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 41.1N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 42.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1200Z 44.0N 44.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0000Z 44.7N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0000Z 45.8N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
