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| #1241114 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 11.Aug.2025) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 2100 UTC MON AUG 11 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 30.3W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 30.3W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 29.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.4N 33.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.3N 37.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.1N 40.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.3N 44.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.8N 47.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 20.0N 55.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 30.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN |
