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Invest #97L goes straight to being named Erin just west of the Cabo Verde Islands with first NHC advisory. Favored to become a long-tracker.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 306 (Milton) , Major: 306 (Milton) Florida - Any: 306 (Milton) Major: 306 (Milton)
TS Erin
ADV#3 11:00 pm EDT
17.6N 32.3W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1004mb
Moving:
W at 22 mph
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#1241141 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 11.Aug.2025)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 32.3W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 32.3W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 31.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.2N 38.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.1N 42.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.7N 51.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 20.3N 56.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 32.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN