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#1241246 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 12.Aug.2025)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC WED AUG 13 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 40.1W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 40.1W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 39.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.3N 42.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.2N 45.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.6N 48.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 51.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.1N 54.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.9N 57.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 20.5N 62.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 70SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 40.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE