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| #1241247 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 12.Aug.2025) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 12 2025 ...ERIN LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 40.1W ABOUT 1520 MI...2440 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 40.1 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion is expected tonight through Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, and gradual strengthening is forecast to begin by late Wednesday. Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake |
