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Unfavorable conditions for development in Gulf but a weak low may form near Florida with 10% odds, likely just rain. Tropical Atlantic to watch later this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 357 (Milton) , Major: 357 (Milton) Florida - Any: 357 (Milton) Major: 357 (Milton)
PTC Imelda
ADV#24 11:00 am EDT
33.2N 59.5W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 980mb
Moving:
Ene at 29 mph
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#1241362 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 13.Aug.2025)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC THU AUG 14 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 46.6W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 46.6W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 45.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.5N 48.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.2N 51.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 54.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.9N 57.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.8N 60.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.6N 62.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.8N 66.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 25.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 46.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE