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| #1241421 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 14.Aug.2025) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 14 2025 Satellite imagery shows that Erin has become a little better organized this morning, with the formation of a ragged central dense overcast with some outer banding in the northwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have increased a little during the past 6 h and are now in the 40-55 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. Erin will be in an environment of light-to-moderate easterly vertical shear and moving over increasing sea surface temperatures during the next 48 h. This should allow a faster rate of intensification during this time, and Erin is now forecast to become a hurricane by 24 h. The environment becomes less conducive after 48 h, with the global models forecast northwesterly shear over the cyclone as a large upper-level anticyclone develops to the west. Despite this forecast shear, the global and regional hurricane models forecast intensification to continue, although at a slower rate than during the first 48 h. Based on these forecasts, the new intensity forecast shows steady intensification through 48 h, followed by a slower rate of development during the remainder of the forecast period. The new forecast is near the intensity consensus, and there is guidance that suggests the possibility Erin could be stronger than currently forecast. The initial motion is now 275/15. The storm continues to be steered by a subtropical ridge to the north, and this ridge should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward during the next three days. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken or break due to the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies over the northeastern United States. This evolution should lead to Erin turning toward the northwest or north-northwest during the remainder of the forecast period, although there is significant spread in the guidance on just how sharp this turn will be. The new forecast track is south of the consensus models through 48 h and then lies near the consensus models thereafter. Due to the spread in the track guidance by 120 h and beyond, there is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Erin. 2. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.4N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 16.9N 51.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.8N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 18.6N 57.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.4N 60.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 20.3N 63.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 21.3N 65.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 23.5N 68.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 26.5N 69.8W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
