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| #1241462 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 PM 14.Aug.2025) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 800 PM AST Thu Aug 14 2025 ...NOAA AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT ERIN IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 51.9W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Anguilla and Barbuda * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * Sint Maarten A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 51.9 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with this motion expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. NOAA aircraft data indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days and Erin is expected to soon become a hurricane and could become a major hurricane by the end of this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin |
