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Unfavorable conditions for development in Gulf but a weak low may form near Florida with 10% odds, likely just rain. Tropical Atlantic to watch later this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 357 (Milton) , Major: 357 (Milton) Florida - Any: 357 (Milton) Major: 357 (Milton)
PTC Imelda
ADV#24 11:00 am EDT
33.2N 59.5W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 980mb
Moving:
Ene at 29 mph
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#1241513 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 15.Aug.2025)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 54.4W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....135NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 54.4W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 53.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 56.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N 59.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.1N 62.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.0N 64.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.2N 66.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.2N 68.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 25.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 55SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 28.9N 71.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 140NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 54.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY