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Unfavorable conditions for development in Gulf but a weak low may form near Florida with 10% odds, likely just rain. Tropical Atlantic to watch later this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 357 (Milton) , Major: 357 (Milton) Florida - Any: 357 (Milton) Major: 357 (Milton)
PTC Imelda
ADV#24 11:00 am EDT
33.2N 59.5W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 980mb
Moving:
Ene at 29 mph
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#1241571 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 15.Aug.2025)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 57.6W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 57.6W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 56.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.6N 59.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.4N 62.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.2N 65.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.3N 67.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.4N 68.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.8N 69.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 27.9N 70.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 32.2N 69.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 57.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN